“All Systems Are Go For Launch”

Things are looking good at the Cape a couple minutes before launch of the Falcon 9.

[Update a couple minutes later]

A couple minutes into the flight, and everything is looking nominal, about to MECO.

OK, stage sep, ignition confirmed for second stage. Another six minutes to orbit.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Second-stage engine cutoff in a couple minutes, still nominal trajectory.

[Update a couple minutes later]

OK, engine shutdown and Dragon separation. It’s in orbit with a low perigee. I assume they’ll do a circularization burn at apogee. About to deploy solar panels.

[Update a while later]

I think that it’s safe to say that Dragon flights have become routine now. But the next one will have some pucker factor, because it will be a new version of the vehicle, stretched, with the Merlin D engines.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Oops, may have spoken too soon. Did they have a fairing problem?

If they can’t deploy the panels, I think that Gwynne said yesterday that they can attempt one berthing pass on batteries.

I assume that if there were a crew, they’d probably abort back to earth at this point, while they have batteries (assuming whatever went wrong didn’t interfere with the heat shield). And if they had a small crew, with suits for everyone, they could blow down the cabin and attempt an EVA repair, a la Skylab.

[Update a while later]

There’s going to be a press conference in a few minutes, so I guess we’ll find out more.

I personally blame the sequester.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Actually, now that I think about it, I wonder if they can blow down the cabin? I would have cold plated the electronics, but if they didn’t, it might need air pressure to keep things cool. Surely they designed for that?

[Update a couple minutes later]

For those unfamiliar, I describe the Skylab repair in the book:

before the program ended completely and after the last lunar landing, NASA did undertake one more hazardous series of missions with Apollo hardware, though not to the moon. In 1973, America’s first space station, Skylab, suffered a failure on its launch, when the meteoroid shield was torn off from the aerodynamic forces, taking with it one of the two main solar panels while partially deploying the other prematurely. NASA had to nurse the crippled facility in a “hold” position that resulted in an increase of heat within due to the loss of the shield. The temperature reached 125° F, and it was unknown whether or not the cabin atmosphere was breathable, due to potential toxins from outgassing of overheated materials. But the agency hastily planned a risky repair mission to be performed by the station’s first crew – Pete Conrad, Paul Weitz and Joe Kerwin.

After rendezvousing with the station, the repair started with an open-hatch spacewalk from the Apollo capsule, with Weitz leaning out with a pole, his legs held by Kerwin. However, his attempt to release the stuck solar panel was unsuccessful. The crew then docked to the facility after several failed attempts, and entered after verifying that the air was breathable, albeit hot. From inside the airlock, they deployed a parasol that shielded the structure from the sun, and the temperature finally started to come down, though the power remained low due to the missing and stuck solar arrays. A couple of weeks into the one-month mission, Conrad and Kerwin once again put on suits and went out the airlock to attempt to free up the array. This time they succeeded, but it was almost a disaster, as Conrad was flung by the sudden release of the system after he removed debris from the hinge that was holding it in place. Had he not been tethered, he would have died as the life-support systems of his space suit were depleted, with him unable to get back to the spacecraft. But he was, and the two made it back in. The station was now almost fully functional, and would go on to host two more crews, giving the U.S. valuable long-duration space experience unmatched until the ISS was permanently crewed almost thirty years later. But with the end of Skylab in 1974, and the Apollo-Soyuz Test Program in 1975, the Apollo program was finally over.

I wonder if we may see a repeat, if they can manage to berth it?

[Update a couple minutes later]

OK, apparently the panels aren’t the problem. They’ve got thruster issues, which are causing them to delay the panel deployment until they’re resolved. If they can’t fix that problem, they’re probably not even going to be able to abort and enter properly.

[Update a while later]

No press conference yet, but here’s the official statement from SpaceX: “After Dragon achieved orbit, the spacecraft experienced an issue with its thrusters. One thruster pod is running and two are preferred to take the next step which is to deploy the solar arrays. We are working to bring up the other two in order to plan the next series of burns to get to station.”

[Update a couple minutes later]

This sounds like good news: “thruster pod 3 tank pressure trending positive. Preparing to deploy solar arrays.”

[Update just before noon EDT]

Solar array deployment successful

Here’s the latest from SpaceX: “Falcon 9 lifted off as planned and experienced a nominal flight. After Dragon achieved orbit, the spacecraft experienced an issue with a propellant valve. One thruster pod is running. We are trying to bring up the remaining three. We did go ahead and get the solar arrays deployed. Once we get at least 2 pods running, we will begin a series of burns to get to station.”

CBM Versus NDS

This is a post for manned space geeks, arising from questions in comments earlier. As I note there:

We’re going to be stuck with both CBM and NDS for a long time. The latter is much more flexible, (e.g., allowing docking to an unmanned facility), but the former will stick around for its ability to transfer large objects.

Note that Dragon can’t serve as a lifeboat currently, because it has to have someone in the station, with power, to unberth from the CBM, even though it’s functionally capable of doing so with a rudimentary life support system. One of the key changes for commercial crew will be adoption of the NDS. One more reason that we should be accelerating that capability, because a Dragon lifeboat would allow the addition of another crew member, doubling or maybe even quadrupling the science that could be performed at the station.

I discuss this issue in the book:

To get back to the bizarre (at least that’s how it would appear to a Martian) behavior with respect to ISS, what is it worth? Of what value is it to have people aboard? We have spent about a hundred billion dollars on it over almost three decades. We are continuing to spend two or three billion a year on it, depending on how one keeps the books. For that, if the purpose is research, we are getting about one person-year of such (simply maintaining the facility takes a sufficient amount of available crew time that on average, only one person is doing actual research at any given time). That would imply that we think that a person-year of orbital research is worth two or three gigabucks.

What is the constraint on crew size? For now, not volume, though the life support system may be near its limits (the US segment can supposedly support four, and the Russian segment three) – I don’t know how many ultimately it could handle, but we know that there is currently not a larger crew because of NASA’s lifeboat requirement, and there has to be a Soyuz (which can return three) for each three people on the station. If what they were doing was really important, they’d do what they do at Scott-Amundsen, and live without. After all, as suggested earlier, just adding two researchers would immediately triple the productivity of the facility. In fact, because the ISS has recently been unable to average more than twenty-seven hours per week1, adding one person for a forty-hour week would increase it by two and a half times, and adding a second would increase it by a factor of four. If what we’re getting from the ISS in terms of research is really worth three billion a year, then quadrupling it would be, at least in theory, a huge value.

That’s not to say that they couldn’t be continuing to improve the safety, and develop a larger life boat eventually (the Dragon is probably very close to being able to serve as one now, since it doesn’t need a launch abort system for that role – only a new mating adaptor that allows it to dock to or depart from an unmanned or unpowered station), but their unwillingness to risk crew now is indicative of how unimportant whatever science being done on the station really is.

I should note that last week, the station did manage a record seventy-one hours, but I don’t think they’ll be able to keep that up with current crew size.

Where No Man (or Woman) Has Gone Before

My thoughts on Dennis Tito’s press conference yesterday, over at PJMedia.

[Update a while later]

Hmmmm…the post seems to have disappeared. I’ll bug them to find out what happened.

[Update a few minutes later]

I’ve sent an email to find out what happened, but meanwhile, here‘s Marcia Smith’s (semi-skeptical) report.

[Update a while later]

OK, it seems to be back up now.

A Chinese/European Space Station?

This is interesting.

APAS is a pretty obsolete system, but it would be nice to have a docking standard for everyone, for safety and rescue reasons, and flexibility. I’m sure that Frank Wolf would have a hissy fit, though, if we were to share the NDS with the Chinese. The question is, would the station share an orbit with the ISS, or be in a different one? One of my dreams is seeing an actual community and infrastructure develop in one place, which again, would promote safety, and eliminate the idiotic (in my opinion, as I describe in my book) requirement for a “lifeboat” to evacuate everyone in the ISS all the way back to earth.

America’s “Justice” System

Thoughts from Conrad Black:

American prosecutors win 99.5 percent of their cases, a much higher percentage than those in other civilized countries; that 97 percent of them are won without trial, because of the plea-bargain system in which inculpatory evidence is extorted from witnesses in exchange for immunity from prosecution, including for perjury; that the U.S. has six to twelve times as many incarcerated people per capita as do Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, or the United Kingdom, comparably prosperous democracies; that the U.S. has 5 percent of the world’s population, 25 percent of its incarcerated people, and half of its academically qualified lawyers, who take about 10 percent of U.S. GDP; that prosecutors enjoy very uneven advantages in procedure and an absolute immunity for misconduct; that they routinely seize targets’ money on false affidavits alleging ill-gotten gains so they cannot defend themselves by paying rapacious American lawyers, most of whom in criminal-defense matters are just a fig leaf to provide a pretense of a genuine day in court before blind justice; that the Fifth, Sixth, and Eighth Amendment rights that are the basis of the American claim to being a society of laws don’t really exist in practice; and that far too many judges are ex-prosecutors who have not entirely shed the almost universal prosecutorial will to crucify.

But other than that, it’s great.

All The President’s Thugs

Instapundit has a big roundup of links to the Bob Woodward story.

You know, the last time a paranoid socialist president with an enemies list crossed swords with Woodward, it didn’t end well for him. And the media’s hackery/flackery in the service of The One has never been more fully on display.

[Update a while later]

I do have to say that I find Woodward’s naivety in thinking that the president wouldn’t approve of this a little disquieting.

[Update a few minutes later]

That noted right winger Ron Fournier got similar treatment. At some point, the floodgates might open, at least for those few reporters who still imagine themselves to have any integrity whatsoever. I’ll be there are a lot of stories like this out there. And I have to say, I’m not really surprised that it’s Gene Sperling. He always strikes me as a little weasel whenever I see him spinning.

[Update a while later]

A dissenting view from Kevin Hassett: Gene Sperling is no thug.

I wonder who Fournier’s interactions were with? Certainly Plouffe hasn’t covered himself in glory here.

[Update a while later]

Fournier expands on his previous account. It’s still ambiguous, at least to me, whether he’s saying that this is the same WH official who “threatened” Woodward. But I just find this kind of thing mind blowing:

Reporting by Woodward and Carl Bernstein uncovered Watergate misdeeds and led to the resignation of President Nixon. My tweet was not intended to compare Nixon to Obama (there is no reason to doubt Obama’s integrity — period) but rather to compare the attack to the press strategies of all the presidents’ men.

…This can’t be what Obama wants. He must not know how thin-skinned and close-minded his staff can be to criticism. “I have the greatest respect and admiration for what you do,” Obama told reporters a year ago. “I know sometimes you like to give me a hard time, and I certainly like to return the favor, but I never forget that our country depends on you.”

Emphasis mine.

“…no reason to doubt Obama’s integrity”? Really? No reason at all?

“This can’t be what Obama wants”? Really?

The fish rots from the head down, Ron.

[Update a while later]

Heh: “Washington is the only place on earth where Gene Sperling and Rahm Emanuel can successfully bully people.”

Inspiration Mars

The press conference starts in about half an hour. I see though, that they have more info at the web site:

An inflatable habitat module will be deployed after launch and detached prior to re-entry.

So they’re not crazy enough to spend over sixteen months in a cramped capsule.

[Update a couple minutes later]

They’re already streaming from the press club. I see Jim Muncy talking on the phone in front of the speakers’ chairs.

[Update a while later]

I think I see Jim Keravala of Shackleton Energy Company in the front row, and closer to the camera, the back of Jeff Foust. And now I see Seth Borenstein, from AP.

[Update at 12:56 EDT]

Speakers seated now. Looks like (left to right) Tito, Taber, Jon Clark and Jane Poynter. Sharon Grace from AIAA just came in.

OK, Miles O’Brien is MCing. “Simplicity, audacity, liquidity.”

Jeff Foust has a picture.

Inspiration Mars Press 1

You can see Keravala on the right edge of the shot.

O’Brien: “Sometimes you just have to weight anchor and shove off.”

This certainly fits in with the theme of my book.

Tito speaking now.

“Need to learn how crew responds to deep-space missions before attempting a landing.”

“This mission is a low-hanging fruit.”

Miles O’Brien just tweeted: “#InspirationMars seeking committed couples for a 501 day round trip to #Mars and back. No stopping for directions!”

“I will come out a lot poorer as a result of this mission, but my grandchildren will be enriched.”

Here‘s an interview that Jeff Foust did with Taber yesterday. “It all sort of kept working out.”

“No show stoppers, funding for first two years out of my pocket.”

“Media rights will be incredible, imagine Dr. Phil talking to the couple about their problems.”

Taber speaking now.

It strikes me that Taber and Jane are obvious crew candidates.

[Update a while later]

Now saluting the “program of record” (i.e., SLS/Orion). “Needed to actually explore Mars with team of scientists.” Can just barely do a flyby with current hardware.

Jonathan Clark about to speak now. It just occurs to me that it’s been almost exactly ten years (February 1) since he lost his wife on Columbia.

Jane speaking now. “Really long road trip in an RV, about a year and a half, and you can’t get out.” 3000 pounds of freeze-dried food, that will be rehydrated with the water you drank a couple days earlier.

[Update after end of conference]

Seth Borenstein: “Are you crazy?” OK, that was a paraphrase. Good response by Tito to his skepticism. I was thinking Apollo 8 and STS-1 when he was asking if this isn’t too risky, how do you do it without test flights, how do you do it in five years, bla bla bla.

Jon Clark pointing out that main crew health is a mission operational issue, because they are a part of the system in the need for them to maintain it. Can deal with cancer issues when the get back, but have to be sure that they are capable of performing throughout the mission.

Frank Morring of AvWeek asking about milestones to hit five-year deadline. When will crew be selected?

Taber: Dennis has committed to two years, and they don’t need to worry about money. Have signed Space Act agreement, life support under development, have to put together vehicle strategy soon to hold schedule. Clark says that it is a milestone-driven program. I would note that this is one of the advantages of having a limited window that you have to hit — it concentrates the mind, programmatically.

[Update toward the end of questioning]

Clark Lindsey has some good notes of the event.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!