Space

Irreconcilable Differences

This is interesting news: if this story is true, OSC is pulling out of the deal. I’m guessing they pulled a bait and switch on George French. When they made the original deal with RpK, OSC wasn’t expecting a CEV win for Lockheed Martin, but now that they’re on the Orion team, the COTS deal doesn’t look as good to them, so I’m speculating that they tried to renegotiate it.

It’s not clear what this means for the overall COTS deal going forward. I don’t know to what degree having OSC in the proposal was a factor in the NASA award. But if they can’t raise the money, they’ll have to get out of the game, and NASA will have to award another COTS contract to one of the runners up.

[Update a little before 5 PM EDT]

Just to clarify, per the first comment. Why did things change when Lockheed Martin won the Orion contract? OSC was hungry, and they committed to a ten million dollar investment in RpK in order to get a lot of the work on COTS. Once they had their plate full with the Orion work, it didn’t look like such a great deal to them any more. They pushed too hard for a do over, and RpK pulled the plug (partly, no doubt, because they didn’t want to do business with someone who would renege on a deal).

[Late evening update]

Here is a semi-official statement from RpK:

  • In June 2006, Rocketplane Kistler and Orbital Sciences initiated discussions regarding a strategic relationship in which Orbital would have both a significant role in the development of the K-1 and a significant financial interest in Rocketplane Kistler.
  • Rocketplane Kistler has been very pleased with the programmatic and technical interfaces with the Orbital personnel.
  • However, in recent weeks, Orbital has conditioned investment in Rocketplane Kistler on changes to the K-1 Program that Rocketplane Kistler does not believe are in the best interests of Rocketplane Kistler and would be inconsistent with the goals and objectives of NASA in entering into a Space Act Agreement with Rocketplane Kistler.
  • As a result, Rocketplane Kistler and Orbital have decided to terminate their strategic relationship.
  • As part of its planning processes, Rocketplane Kistler has anticipated the possibility that one or more of its contractors may elect not to participate in the K-1 program. While the company regrets Orbital’s decision, the decision will not impair the ability of the company to meet its obligations to NASA under the SAA. Among other things, we are increasing near term RpK staffing plans for conducting SE&I related activities that were previously planned for Orbital. RpK is also continuing discussions with several potential industry strategic partners who have recently approached Rocketplane Kistler about participating in SE&I and other development and operational areas of interest on the K1. We anticipate completing those discussions in the very near future and finalizing appropriate agreements that will provide the best strategic and economic value to Rocketplane Kistler.
Technology and Society

How Do You Check Their Pulse?

A continuous-flow artificial heart:

Frazier and his team have implanted pairs of commercially available ventricular-assist de-vices* into calves that had their hearts removed. The researchers say the de-vices* were able to pump blood and respond to the animals’ needs based on their activities. “You put this in cattle and they stand up and moo and eat and wonder why everyone is looking at them so weird,” says William Cohn, a collaborator on the research and director of minimally invasive surgical technology at the Texas Heart Institute.

…Cohn hopes that in the future, artificial heart technology will become much safer and easier to use, broadening the potential pool of patients. “It wouldn’t surprise me if at the 2050 Olympics, there were standard and modified [competitor] divisions,” he says.

Ahhh, life in the twenty-first century.

* Note: misspelling deliberate. For some weird reason, MT won’t allow me to create a post with the word “dev i ces” in it. The script actually breaks.

Political Commentary

Executive Jet “Liberals”

Debra Saunders writes about the sham of the environmentalist liberal glitteratti:

Last week, they flew to their Mecca, the Clinton Global Initiative conference in New York. For the left-leaning and loaded, this is the meet that has it all — the mega-rich paying to be seen caring about poor people and the environment, while posing for photos with former President Clinton.

You see, they care so much more about the environment than President Bush because they support the Kyoto global warming pact, which they believe would save the planet from greenhouse gases, if only Bush had not rejected it. (Never mind that Clinton never asked the Senate to ratify the pact, probably because senators voted 95 to 0 for a resolution rejecting any treaty that exempted China and India.)

Political Commentary

Executive Jet “Liberals”

Debra Saunders writes about the sham of the environmentalist liberal glitteratti:

Last week, they flew to their Mecca, the Clinton Global Initiative conference in New York. For the left-leaning and loaded, this is the meet that has it all — the mega-rich paying to be seen caring about poor people and the environment, while posing for photos with former President Clinton.

You see, they care so much more about the environment than President Bush because they support the Kyoto global warming pact, which they believe would save the planet from greenhouse gases, if only Bush had not rejected it. (Never mind that Clinton never asked the Senate to ratify the pact, probably because senators voted 95 to 0 for a resolution rejecting any treaty that exempted China and India.)

Political Commentary

Executive Jet “Liberals”

Debra Saunders writes about the sham of the environmentalist liberal glitteratti:

Last week, they flew to their Mecca, the Clinton Global Initiative conference in New York. For the left-leaning and loaded, this is the meet that has it all — the mega-rich paying to be seen caring about poor people and the environment, while posing for photos with former President Clinton.

You see, they care so much more about the environment than President Bush because they support the Kyoto global warming pact, which they believe would save the planet from greenhouse gases, if only Bush had not rejected it. (Never mind that Clinton never asked the Senate to ratify the pact, probably because senators voted 95 to 0 for a resolution rejecting any treaty that exempted China and India.)

Popular Culture

Clinched

The Tigers are in the playoffs with today’s win against Kansas City–they’re guaranteed to at least get in as the AL wild card. But it could be a neck and neck race with the Twins down to the last game for the division title. Detroit is playing the Rangers, and then gets to beat up on the Royals again, but Minnesota gets to play the Royals for a while, then finish up with the White Sox. Detroit has an arguably easier final schedule, and they’ve finally started hitting again, so they’ve still got a good shot at the title. The good news, though, is that if they can keep hitting the way they have been (and hopefully it’s not all lousy Royals pitching) they might actually be able to acquit themselves well post season.

This is a big morale boost for the Motor City, which badly needs one.

Space

Back

I was at Ames most of the day yesterday, with no net access, and then took a red eye back from SFO via LAX. Probably no posting today, because there’s a lot of stuff to catch up on around here.

Political Commentary

Anti-Krugman 2:
Single Horrible Payor

Paul Krugman today attempts to answer the question, “Why is the insurance industry growing rapidly, even as it covers fewer Americans?”

In 2005, the percent of uninsured was 15.9%. In 2000, it was 14.0%. In 2000, private insurers covered 72.4% of Americans or 204 million. In 2005, they covered 67.7% or 201 million.

Total number of covered individuals increased from 243 million to 249 million. From 2000-2005, the number employed rose from 137 million to 142 million. The number unemployed rose from 6 million to 8 million.

Could it be that we were experiencing a boom in 2001 and coverage peaked as a percent and that it will rise again if we have another boom with 4% unemployment? The percent of the population working has dropped from 67.1% to 66%.

Could it be that people are feeling secularly more healthy and feel like they can go without health insurance? Between 1999 and 2004, life expectancy at birth has risen from 76.7 years to 77.9 years. At least average health overall is improving by that indicator.

Could it be that the sector is over-regulated? CATO estimates that about 1/6 of daily uninsured would buy insurance if it was less heavily regulated. That would allow health care deregulation to take us from 15.9% to 13.3% uninsured and allow everyone else to save a total of $170 billion a year or $680 per covered individual per year or about 1.4% of GDP.

In short, insurers are covering more people. They are helping increase the average lifespan of all Americans. They are doing it despite a substantial burden of regulation.

Continue reading Anti-Krugman 2:
Single Horrible Payor →

Space

The First Space Hotel

3 Comments

Bigelow announced at lunch that he will be putting up a three-person space station in late 2009 or early 2010, about fifty percent bigger than an ISS module. He is putting up a destination in hopes that the transportation will come along (and in order to spur the transportation providers). Station will last for several years. Will be executing contracts in 2008 for transportation contracts to Sundancer. Expects between four and eight trips (people and cargo) per year, after six-month shakedown. Then trips will commence whenever transportation becomes available. 2012 will see the launch of another module providing 500 cubic meters of habitable volume. Will support sixteen launches a year for full utilization (again, cargo and people). Minimum three-week stay, but market limited at ten million, so wants to establish private astronaut program for other nations (this is not news). Make sixty instead of eleven countries with an astronaut corps. Could represent on the order of a billion a year in revenue. Launch estimates from fifty to a hundred million per flight. About time to take human spaceflight from the exclusive domain of governments. Will be changing that in the next half decade.

He also announced that he and Lockmart have a joint agreement to study what it will take to human rate the Atlas V for commercial passenger transport.

A press conference is about to start at which he will have more details and take questions. I’ll try to live blog it, despite my lack of mouse.

[Update at start of conference]

Conference with Bob Bigelow and George Sowers from Lockheed Martin. Bigelow saying that he’s happy to simply take questions. Dr. Sowers saying that they’re pleased to be working with a pragmatic visionary like Bob Bigelow to get the human spaceflight industry started. Handing a model of the Atlas V with the Begelow payload on top. Two-stage, one engine per stage, most reliable Atlas ever built.

Bigelow saying that he’s been looking at the Atlas for a while, and impressed with the family track record. Has a lot of faith in the people of Lockheed.

In response to question from David Livinston, this will be handled by ULA if ULA happens, won’t be outside.

Warren Ferster asks if Bigelow will continue to self finance. He says yes, and he’s looking for another job (joke). Has sufficient funds to go through 2010-2012, but wants to start to establish relationships with other companies, because he expects it to be huge. Will be looking for joint venture opportunities.

Each organization will handle its own contribution to feasibility studies, but Sowers says that Atlas V human rating is not a new subject. They have a lot of info to bring to bear.

In response to a question from me, expects to use NASA standards for human rating absent a large document from the FAA.

TBD situation as to who will build crew module. Bigelow is providing destination, and focusing their resources on that. Have had conversation with various people. Bigelow can’t say what cost situation will be, but thinks it’s between three and twenty millions.

Sowers won’t directly answer my question as to whether or not Lockheed Martin is considering a variant of Orion as a crew module. Says that discussions have taken place, and that there are options, and the focus of this announcement is on the launch vehicle and destination.

Not considering any launch site other than the Cape currently.

In response to question from me, says that they currently plan to be at forty degrees inclination for “early out” options in the US (didn’t quite understand this comment from Bob–didn’t seem to be ascent abort, but rather some kind of “early” return from orbit).

Definitely don’t want to discuss cost (particularly with respect to the module).

Wired reporter asking how many people. First module is three, second is five, for a total of nine. Want to reduce costs initially as low as possible to spawn industry and create demand. Will be aggressive with low lease cost (Bigelow).

Sundancer will be as close to forty as possible (response to Warren Ferster). Won’t know specifically until they know launch provider and location. Will be able to change altitude to accommodate launch provider. BA-330 is name for the second module.

Considering EM tether and other methods for maneuvering in response to question from me. Can’t specify electric power level yet.

Conference over.

Thoughts and analysis later.

[A couple minutes later]

I think that this has upstaged the major Orion discussion at the plenary this morning. I haven’t been to an AIAA conference in a while, but this is the first one that I’ve been to that had some of the feel of a NewSpace conference.

[Update a little while later]

Apparently NASASpaceflight.com had the story earlier (I’ve been too busy reporting to know what’s going on, though I was hearing rumors in the morning). Also, there was some speculation in comments in my previous post. Clark Lindsey has thoughts. as does Jon Goff, even if I don’t have time to gather mine right now.

Shutting down the computer now. Back later, probably tonight, after the conference is over. Be nice in the comments section.

Space

Conference Reporting

Yes, sorry, I know that it’s been non-existent (other than deleted whining about wireless problems and the overwhelmingness of it). But Bob Bigelow is the luncheon speaker, and he’s going to make some kind of news announcement at 1:30, so I’ll try to get the word out on that, at least.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!