9 thoughts on “Climate Models”

  1. Locating all the space launch sites on the coasts makes them vulnerable to storms as well as naval commandos and cruise missiles. Now that SpaceX routinely lands its vehicles DOD should start building inland launch sites.

    1. Make a breakwater, and launch rockets 50 km off shore- that deals with storms. As far as naval commandos and cruise missiles, I guess shoot anything which not suppose to be within 2 km of it.
      Make public area {in which one can view launches} 5 km from it.

      If it’s something like Musk wants in terms of number of launches per day, no one should ever be within 3 km of a launch site{unless they are in bunker}

  2. As I’ve been saying for many years, if your model’s predictions don’t agree with real world measurements, it isn’t the real world that’s wrong.

    1. Au contraire; I’ve been saying for years that the blue pill* I swallowed has given us nothing but chronic erroneous climate observations that are hopelessly flawed when compared to the actual models.

      Karl et al, have been working hard to correct the observational record.


  3. 2020 has been so crazy that I don’t think I’ve been to Climate Etc. more than once or twice this year. It would match the way climate change has dropped way way down on voters lists of concerns, too.

    Sure, maybe there are a few people out there trying to convert from Celsius to Fahrenheit in their head as they flee from an angry mob that’s burning down their climate prediction store, but probably not that many.

    1. … as they flee from an angry mob that’s burning down their climate prediction store, but probably not that many.

      Well I for one think that they were right on the money predicting “climate change”. The only prediction they missed was that their own local warming would exceed global warming by a factor of 400-560 degrees C in 3 hours rather than 2C over 100 years. I suppose its the limits of crystal based power and the predictive horizon effect. OTOH the burning incense never made the neighborhood smell better….

  4. A recent news article indicates that scientists have concluded that the last ice age had a max of 46° F. I looked up the CO2 ppm for the last ice age and it was about 200 ppm. My back-of-the-envelope calculation of what today’s temperature should be now that we are at 410 ppm is as follows:

    200 ppm – Ice ages
    280 ppm – Interglacial periods

    Ice Age Max = 46° F (8° C)
    Interglacial Max = 100° F (38° C)

    – 80 ppm –> 30° C
    = 2.67 ppm –> 1° C

    Current CO2 Levels: 410 ppm

    Therefore the Current Max Should Be:
    – 130 ppm (410-280) * 2.67
    = 347° C + 46° C = 393°C = 740° F

    1. I believe CO2 levels dipped to 180 ppm {around 150 ppm starts killing plants}.

      Global climate has to do with ocean temperature.
      Global average air temperature is largely average ocean surface temperature- which is currently about 17 C.
      But if you divide tropical and rest of world ocean surface temperature, it’s tropics {40% of Earth surface} 26 C, and rest of world {60%} being about 11 C.
      And entire volume of ocean {which establishes global climate} is currently about 3.5 C.

      In coldest part glacial period ocean temperature is less than 2 C and warmest parts of interglacial ocean is more than 4 C.
      Having ocean of 4 C, makes the ocean surface temperature in 60% of the ocean have warmer surface temperature. and ocean of 2 C, makes 60% of ocean surface, cooler.
      But even when ocean is 4 or 5 C, we are still in the Ice Age.
      Or if the ocean was 10 C, we would not be in an Ice Age, we would global climates of Earth which are not Ice Ages {or “normal” global climate}. And if ocean was 15 C or warmer, we would in the warmest global climates [a Hothouse/Greenhouse global climate}.

      1. Not that agree with all of it, but Wiki:
        Greenhouse and icehouse Earth
        “Hot House Climate
        A “greenhouse Earth” is a period in which there are no continental glaciers whatsoever on the planet, the levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (such as water vapor and methane) are high, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) range from 28 °C (82.4 °F) in the tropics to 0 °C (32 °F) in the polar regions.”

        I would say Earth always has glacial ice, just as our current tropical region has glaciers.
        But we do not have a lot glacial ice in the tropics, and you likewise would not have a lot in a Greenhouse Earth.
        Or we have a lot deserts and glacial ice, in our Ice Age- Greenhouse Earth would a lot fewer deserts and glacial ice.

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