18 thoughts on “The Next SLS Shoe”

  1. a major “if,” especially in the world of Musk’s chronically overoptimistic timelines

    Guy needs to go back to reading about SETI.

    1. I like Musk’s version of that, how they specialize in converting things from impossible to late.

  2. …Musk’s chronically overoptimistic timelines
    FUD. Who exactly has already launched again?

    1. SpaceX is planning on launching right now. Again.

      When was the last time NASA launched?

  3. Gotta love all the clickbait headlines in the sidebar and at the bottom of the page over on that site.

    Is there any professional (or professional appearing) website anymore that can come up with simple declarative headlines without snark and biased/perjorative adjectives?

  4. I don’t know, but maybe this is where the 4 billion dollars, went.

    When I hear about NASA losing 4 billion dollars, I just wonder how much other government dept/agencies are “losing” particularly intel/federal policing and etc.
    But it’s not surprising. And let get this SLS launched and maybe then launch a few more times. I don’t think SLS will like the shuttle Program which went. on and on and basic did very little for massive amount money it wasted. Stopping SLS, 10 years ago, would made sense- in sense, maybe NASA could do more, without wasting all budget. But now, SLS is not stopping NASA, and space exploration is going to pick up- with or without SLS.

  5. I’m betting that the next crewed landing on the Moon will occur on or after July 18, 2038 – a little more than 16 years from now.

    If I’m right, it will have been 65 years, 7 months and 3 days after the liftoff of Apollo 17 from the Moon. Why is that significant? It was 65 years, 7 months and 3 days from the Wright Brothers’ first powered flight at Kitty Hawk until the landing of Apollo 11 at the Sea of Tranquility.

    1. I am hoping FAA will allow a Starship launch before July.
      I tend to be overly optimistic.

      I think Musk should launch just first stage with 33 engines, and see if it can be caught,
      And then do Test launch.

      1. SpaceX is more interested in getting the second stage through a re-entry test to inform mods for the next version.
        The first stage is not much more than an improved, larger Falcon 9.

    2. It’ll be great to watch that landing from the SpaceX provided reviewing stands…

  6. Once you get over the idea that SLS ever had anything to do with space “exploration”, you’ll see that it has been and will continue to be an outstanding success. In fact, the one thing that could derail the gravy train is an actual launch. That’s exactly when the realization will set in just how much the next one will cost and just how little has been accomplished.

    All of this just so they could find something to do with the left over SME’s and avoid everyone finding out that they were no longer able to design and build a new engine. Whoever burned the F-1 blueprints did the world a huge favor or they’d be working on those as well.

    Now they won’t even be able to buy engines from Russia.

    1. I always figured the critical moment would come in when they ran out of already-built engines left over from the shuttle era. The series of failed tests may have moved the critical time earlier.

    2. They contracted for new RS-25E’s, which are the expendable and cheaper version of the RS-25D in the universe of strange accounting tricks where you don’t count the massive contract to renovate and refurbish the assembly line for new production.

  7. SLS’s solid motors have been stacked since January of 2021, and have a certification limit of 12 months. So it’s now 6 months past the limit. So what shape are the SRB’s in?

    If there are any cracks in the solids, that means increased burn area, which means increased pressure in the casing. When I was into high power rocketry what could happen was called a “Cato” – catastrophic motor failure. If they find any cracks will the solids be replaced by new ones, and cause another delay, or will NASA suffer “go fever” and launch anyway? What would happen if the first alunch went BOOM?

    1. So what shape are the SRB’s in?

      Eric Berger inquired about that recently. The short version is, NASA is not using any hard cutoff date in anymore, and they feel confident the boosters will be safe for months to come.

      I guess we’ll find out if that confidence is well placed.

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