Technology and Society, War Commentary Kherson August 14, 2022 Rand Simberg 27 Comments Is it about to fall?
27 thoughts on “Kherson”
Today 8/14 Rand linked to an article that claimed Kherson was about to fall. Marker…..
Rand, when this is all over, can you create a post evaluating how wrong/right all these smart guys were?
The Antonovsky railway bridge across the Dniper north of Kherson is now impassible to rail traffic. Russian troops west and north of the river may be able to walk back across the bridge (in the face of further HIMARS strikes) but their equipment must needs stay behind.
Don’t forget the pontoon bridges that they built along side.
Russian video doesn’t show any pontoon bridges. Just a jury-rigged ferry made from a few pontoon bridge segments. It can’t carry anything bigger than a car and a few people.
The bridge was hit at both ends again yesterday. Probably a HIMARS attack as five rounds landed quite accurately. A sixth was probably intercepted in mid-flight by a Russian SAM, but several of these were fired in order to get it. A full HIMARS magazine holds six rockets.
Pontoon bridges are easily sunk — by fragments from GMLRS air-bursts, for one thing, same as made the bridge proper impassable.
What’s interesting is that the Russians are using pontoon bridges everywhere to solve such “bridge” problems — when in many cases pre-cast concrete structures would be more appropriate — as well as unsinkable. Yet, such pre-cast concrete structures have been employed by the Russians in only one place: the Kerch Strait bridge.
Trent Telenko has (yet another) fascinating thread on what that tells us about Russian vs. Ukrainian degrees of societal corruption.
The Russians also deployed illusionary pontoon bridges, which was an interesting tactic but not clever enough.
Corruption, yep just ask Hunter and Joe. How happy are you that more money (billions and billions) has gone to Ukraine (wash rise repeat) than 2 years in Afganistan ( whoa, that wasn’t corrupt, was it?) How much of it do you thing our corrupt politicians and deep state NGO’s are socking away in laundered bank accounts?
Cheap at twice the price if it significantly accelerates Russia’s barely controlled flight into terrain.
The West can absorb a certain amount of corruption and still manage to fight a war by proxy.
The Russians can’t seem to absorb even modest corruption and still fight a war themselves. That probably has to do with Russia simply having very little left to steal after decades of prior depredations.
Many of the Russian tanks destroyed or captured by the Ukrainians, for example, don’t have any explosives in those applique reactive armor boxes stuck all over their tank turrets. The explosives were swapped for slabs of rubber at some unknown point in the past. The explosives were, no doubt, sold on the black market.
And now we get a little whataboutism about the US. The US isn’t one of the combatants and US weapon systems work better than their Russian counterparts.
Russian corruption may have cost Russia this war. Nobody else has corruption that bad. You need better talking points.
That would be good news for Ukraine. We will see how it works out for them and impacts the larger board.
Watching the RT video at the link, Russian propaganda is terrible.
Watching the RT video at the link, Russian propaganda is terrible.
Well it’s not exactly a competitive marketplace.
“Pontoon bridges are easily sunk — by fragments from GMLRS air-bursts, for one thing, same as made the bridge proper impassable.”
Could be, but are they? Sources?
I don’t suppose there are no other bridges across the Dniper, oh wait, the Military Summary Channel on Rumble went over the alternative RR bridges a couple of weeks ago (with detailed maps). But since the Russians have been in Kherson for a while and in fact moving forward all over the front line, maybe there supply situation is not what the Clowns and Propagandists say it is. Just asking the question…
And only 16 days left in August to get your Big Ukrainian Counter-offensive. Maybe we’ll blow up a Nuclear Power plant instead says Zelinsky (sic).
The link I passed earlier showed just such a sunken pontoon bridge. As for predictions, time will tell the tale. But your illustrious Russians have made notably little progress since their pause due to exhaustion a few weeks back.
Is winning an argument in a blog comment thread of more importance than what actually happens in Ukraine?
Excellent question. This is very much a spectator sport for many of us. I’ve found the spectacle of it very disturbing and even though I have long viewed Russia as a threat to us, dislike seeing Russians die and dislike seeing Ukrainians die. I worry about this war spinning out of control and our involvement getting more intimate than it is now, even if it doesn’t look very likely right now.
I also worry about the direction our country is heading and how people aren’t learning lessons from COVID or the war in Ukraine. We are gutting our military and energy industry with eyes on doing the same to agriculture at a time when there is a lot of economic uncertainty in our country, aside from the national security threat of our debt, and also across the globe. No one knows who is in charge of our country but our enemies know whoever they are, they are incapable of fighting a war abroad and are focused on fighting war against their fellow Americans.
What happens to Ukraine? If they win, their country is still going to be in ruins and they will owe the West a lot of money. If they lose, it will be much the same. It is not like they had a choice in the matter and they can’t go back in time so there is no way to avoid the damage that has been done. They might as well fight until forced to stop or victory at this point because win or lose, the future will be rough. At least with some sort of victory they have autonomy and pride.
USA is still the world leader in producing pudgy boys with an AR-15 and a Punisher t-shirt but no girlfriend.
Not sure what that statement has to do with the topic.
“I also worry about the direction our country is heading and how people aren’t learning lessons from COVID or the war in Ukraine….”
Here is an interview with someone from a Russian think tank on what is going on in the war. I assume their think tanks are as shady as ours.
With a couple of quite minor exceptions, this guy’s take on the war is pretty much the same one I’ve been gathering from diverse sources, including a few Russian ones.
Russian state media, of course, is a fiction factory.
Our mainstream media would be nearly as bad except for the obvious fact that they seem to have little guidance as to what the “narrative” is supposed to be other than “Russians bad.” The U.S. MSM seems to be operating on its default settings to a considerable degree by treating Ukraine as primarily a human interest story with a bit of politics around the edges rather than as a military story.
Similar to what I have been seeing after sifting through the propaganda. Our media are largely trash.
From aforementioned article:
The West is not yet ready to go to such a level of involvement and escalation, except for some inveterate Russophobes, like the Poles.
Gee, I wonder why?
I’m glad Poland is on our side. They have only just begun to recover from last century.
To answer Rand’s inquiry, no, I don’t think so. I think Kherson will be retaken, but I think the Ukes want to let the Russians in that cut-off area marinate a bit first. Maybe a week or so.
Russia did the same to them a few months ago, so it would be returning the favor but at the time, our media was saying Russia was incapable of closing the cauldron rather than give good information about what was going on.
We are one fuckup away from disaster. I’m almost 72 so it doesn’t much matter,* and I live more than 50 miles from the nearest plausible target (one which is not upwind) so I might even live long enough to watch much of the world die. Consolation prize.
* Yes, I do have descendants, and I’m sorry for them.
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