I’m flying back to Florida tomorrow, and it will be good to be home with Patricia, but I thought I’d take a little walk in my old neighborhood this afternoon. If you’re interested, click for more, but a warning that there are several pictures, for those limited in bandwidth…

Continue reading Smog At The Beach →

In fact, he’s accomplished something that John Cooper never could. He owns Lloyd Carr:

Ohio State (9-2, 7-1) closed the regular season with six straight wins and gave coach Jim Tressel his fourth win in five games against Michigan (7-4, 5-3).

And the game went pretty much the way the season did for Michigan. Good enough defense to win, and a promising offense that only occasionally lived up to the promises. Still, Michigan was only four scores away from an undefeated season. They’re probably the best four-loss team in the country, and they did better than I thought they would. Maybe they’ll get a good bowl matchup.

In fact, he’s accomplished something that John Cooper never could. He owns Lloyd Carr:

Ohio State (9-2, 7-1) closed the regular season with six straight wins and gave coach Jim Tressel his fourth win in five games against Michigan (7-4, 5-3).

And the game went pretty much the way the season did for Michigan. Good enough defense to win, and a promising offense that only occasionally lived up to the promises. Still, Michigan was only four scores away from an undefeated season. They’re probably the best four-loss team in the country, and they did better than I thought they would. Maybe they’ll get a good bowl matchup.

In fact, he’s accomplished something that John Cooper never could. He owns Lloyd Carr:

Ohio State (9-2, 7-1) closed the regular season with six straight wins and gave coach Jim Tressel his fourth win in five games against Michigan (7-4, 5-3).

And the game went pretty much the way the season did for Michigan. Good enough defense to win, and a promising offense that only occasionally lived up to the promises. Still, Michigan was only four scores away from an undefeated season. They’re probably the best four-loss team in the country, and they did better than I thought they would. Maybe they’ll get a good bowl matchup.

If H5N1 is so lethal, it might be a justifiable move on utilitarian grounds to manufacture and release H5N2 or something so people with partial immunity to the most common variants could obtain partial immunity to H5N1. That would probably not be condoned because the idea of killing tens of thousands to innoculate and thereby protect millions who would otherwise die in an H5N1 pandemic is morally and politically dead on arrival (pun intended). If we can’t stomach 2,000 dead in Iraq, there are many high utility strategies that are not options. This one can be pursued, however, by a determined minority.

Avian flu has spread to pigs in China. This is a common step on the way for it to become a human strain.

In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.

Lieutenant Colonel John McCrae, MD (1872-1918)
Canadian Army

Note that the number of WW I vets has dwindled down to a few dozen. Barring some miracle medical breakthroughs, in another decade they will all lie (at least metaphorically) in Flanders fields. Honor today the few who are still with us, and their compatriots who no longer are. And thank, silently or otherwise, those in harm’s way today overseas.

[Update a few minutes later]

Ralph Kinney Bennett has some further thoughts.

By the way, I’ll be keeping this post at the top all day, so if you come back and still see it, scroll down past it–there may be new posts below.

I’m in California, watching a Cat 2 hurricane going right over our home in Boca, and there’s nothing I can do. I just talked to Patricia, who has been holding down the fort, and says it’s the worst she’s ever been through. She’s lost power, and will be in the eye shortly, then get beat up from the other direction. My heart and best wishes goes out to other Florida bloggers, and Floridians in general. This may be the worst hurricane for Florida since Andrew in terms of property damage, considering the large population in its path. No telling how long power will be out.

Roche just announced they are sub-licensing Tamiflu broadly. WSJ picked up the story (subscription required) and noted that some countries aren’t waiting and have allowed generic production infringing Roche’s patents.

I was able to obtain some more Tamiflu today here in Austin at my local People’s Pharmacy. While there is apparently tremendous pressure on Roche at the international level, it looks like the rest of the supply chain has not yet picked up on the coming shortage and telegraphed the price rise. Gas prices these are not.

With no human to human transmission yet, it is hard to produce a vaccine because we do not know what the final pathogen will look like as it has not mutated yet. The risk is that it will spread quickly, but another risk is that it will not spread at all unfairly delegitimizing everyone who raised the warning.

It’s a lot to ask people to st0ckpile their own Tamiflu (40 doses is about $300 enough for two acute courses if you show symptoms or 40 days worth of deterrence). But it lasts for three flu seasons. Spending $100/person per year would be $30 billion/year. Roche might part with a license to sell at a few cents a pill in those volumes and the post office distribute it getting the price down to a few bucks a person a year.

But who will st0ckpile it for you if you don’t do it yourself? All it takes is 1% of families to buy to make personal st0ckpiling bigger than Roche’s US sales in a single flu season. There were only 13,000 prescriptions last year. So if 1% of families bought demand would be increased by a factor of a hundred. Then maybe the wheels of government would move to build some more “push packs” for flu and not just bioterror.

While we are talking good public health policy, maybe we could use Tamiflu prophylactically every year in hard hit regions and not wait for bird flu. This and other measures like more widespread vaccination outreach may even cut the tens of thousands of deaths from regular flu seasons down to the 160 of a typical hurricane season. It would also give the Center for Disease Control good practice.