Category Archives: Science And Society

Ventilators

Nearly everyone put on them in New York died.

So much for “life saving.” Of course, the problem is that by the time it’s so extreme that they decide to put you on one, it’s probably too late. But this shows that the ventilator panic was probably pointless.

We’re learning rapidly how to deal with this, but we’ve unfortunately lost a lot of unwilling guinea pigs. It reminds me of what I say in the book: Every aviation regulation is written in blood. People always have to die or be injured for us to learn.

The Economic Wreckage

Bob Zimmerman catalogs it.

Some things will recover quickly, but we won’t have a robust recovery until people have sufficient confidence that they can go back to sporting events or movie theaters or restaurants at normal capacity, which will probably require a vaccine (even if it’s a placebo). And now, despite all the money being pumped into the economy, the Fed has to worry seriously about deflation.

Remdesivir

…seems to be at least somewhat effective.

If we can find what works for treatment, and only isolate the most vulnerable, that’s the best path forward to re-open the economy in the absence of a vaccine.

[Update a while later]

Time to dump epidemic models? All models are wrong, some are useful, but it’s not clear that these have been, though they’ve certainly been used to implement policies that a lot of people wanted to implement before the pandemic.

[Bumped]