A campaign assessment.

If we can keep pouring in weaponry, at some point Ukraine will start more counteroffensives. As the assessment notes, the Russians are already taking up defensive positions. Eventually, I’m sure that the Ukrainians would want to not just break the siege at Mariupol, but cut the Russian lines in half and encircle them to the west, to provide a buffer for Odessa.

[Update a few minutes later]

Well, looky here:

How did Ukraine manage to attack a key port and sink a ship well behind Russian lines? No one’s quite sure yet, the Wall Street Journal reports, but the apparent success may create even more problems for Russia’s attempts to seize Mariupol. Berdyansk had been a key supply point, and seemingly out of range of Ukraine until this morning.

Expect to see them take more initiatives like this.

[Afternoon update]

An interesting Twitter thread.

[Friday-afternoon update]

The Russians have already lost.

[Bumped]