Category Archives: History

Business, Economics, History, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Space, Space History, Technology and Society, War Commentary

Missile Defense And Launch Costs

January 18, 2019 Rand Simberg 15 Comments

I did a thread on Twitter this morning.

It's worth noting that one of the reasons we never got space-based missile defense was that it was only recently that we've finally gotten launch costs down sufficiently to make it financially feasible, due to an almost demented policy failure for the past three decades. [1/n] https://t.co/ouaaIS9eUk

— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019

The first serious proposal for space-based missile defense was Lowell Wood's concept of "Brilliant Pebbles": Kinetic interceptors in orbit. But in order to implement it, launch costs had to be reduced far below those of the Shuttle and conventional USAF expendables.

— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019

The purpose of the DARPA DC-X program was to demonstrate the potential for reusable Single-Stage-To-Orbit, which many viewed as a requirement for low launch cost (SpaceX has since proven this to be mistaken).

— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019

DC-X did demonstrate vertical take-off and landing of single vehicle in an atmosphere (the Apollo LEM was two stage in a vacuum). It also demonstrated relatively rapid turnaround of a LOX/LH2 propulsion system. But then NASA took it over.

— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019

On one of the test flights of the NASA-modified vehicle, someone left a pneumatic hose off one of the legs, and it crashed and burned at White Sands, ending the program.

— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019

Another thing that the DC-X program demonstrated before its demise was that traditional cost models for new concepts were utter crap. SpaceX has since validated that. NAFCON cost model has been shown to be worse than worthless for non-traditional activities.

— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019

One of the biggest launch-policy errors of the 90s was to confine the military to expendables, and assign reusable space transports to NASA. It was nothing short of disastrous, setting us back over a decade.

— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019

After the X-33 debacle, which no one saw coming except anyone who understood how to do X programs, the idiotic lesson (fallacy of hasty generalization) drawn from it by NASA was that reusable launch systems weren't practical. Tell it to SpaceX.

— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019

X-33 should never have been awarded to Lockmart (their proposal wasn't compliant, in that the business plan was nonsense, but no one at MSFC would recognize a business plan if it kicked them in the ass). Also, should never have been a single award.

— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019

A key rule of X programs is that a vehicle only tests one new technology, on a platform that is otherwise well understood. VentureStar was testing single-stage to Montana, with a linear aerospike engine, and a conformal composite hydrogen tank. Huge and obvious tech risk.

— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019

X-33 was an example of NASA's Wile E. Coyote approach to technology development: Try some crazy thing, then when it doesn't work, don't try to figure out why and improve it, just assume it can't be done and go on to the next crazy thing.

— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019

And so we entered the 21st century with no one, neither USAF or NASA, even attempting to get launch costs down. Former was focused on mission assurance of expendable EELVs, and latter had devolved into a jobs program for giant expendable rockets.

— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019

But now, having done that, it's useful to go back and re-examine concepts for space-based missile defense that were financially infeasible with traditional launch costs of many thousands of dollars per pound. Cubesats are also a game changer.

— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019

[Update a couple minutes later]

Trump’s missile-defense strategy.

As I noted above, if the space segment is now feasible, it’s despite, not because of government launch policy for the past three decades (except possibly for COTS).

History, Law, Media Criticism, Political Commentary

The State Of The Union

January 18, 2019 Rand Simberg 15 Comments

…is off.

Good. Just send a letter. I’ll be happy if there’s never another speech; there is nothing requiring it in the Constitution. If he wants to address the nation, he can do it from the Oval Office again.

[Friday-morning update]

Take this SOTU and shove it.

One way you can tell that SOTUs as they’ve been done for the last century are a terrible idea is that Woodrow Wilson started this execrable circus. Unfortunately, Trump will almost certainly not take the advice. It would be behavior (and an expression of beliefs) far too Reaganesque.

[Bumped]

[Update a few minutes later]

26 of 45 presidents didn’t give a SOTU speech.

Glenn Miller’s Plane

January 17, 2019 Rand Simberg 5 Comments

One of the mysteries of the war may be about to be solved. It still wouldn’t explain what caused it to go down, though.

History, Law, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Technology and Society, War Commentary

The FBI And Its Media Accomplices

January 16, 2019 Rand Simberg 1 Comment

Are the walls closing in? I hope so, but I’ve been disappointed before.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Brexit

January 13, 2019 Rand Simberg 14 Comments

An explanation to George Will why it was a referendum.

History, Humor, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Popular Culture, Social Commentary

The Year In Review

December 28, 2018 Rand Simberg 3 Comments

…from Dave Barry:

APRIL

…when the abandoned Chinese space station Tiangong-1, which has been anxiously watched by scientists as its orbit decayed, plunges back to earth and, in a worst-case outcome, fails to land on attorney Michael Avenatti, thus enabling him to continue appearing on CNN more often than the Geico Gecko.

Meanwhile President Trump, faced with — among other problems — a continuing immigration crisis, increased Russian aggression in Syria and a looming trade war with China, launches a barrage of assault tweets at what is clearly the biggest threat to the nation: Amazon. Trump is forced to back down when the retail giant threatens to suspend the White House’s Amazon Prime membership and cancel delivery of a large order placed by the Defense Department, including six nuclear submarines, two aircraft carriers and a missile-defense system with a five-star average review rating from other nations.

Responding to alleged Russian infiltration of Facebook and massive breaches of user data, the Senate Committee of Aging Senators Who Cannot Operate Their Own Cell Phones Without the Assistance of Minions holds a hearing intended to answer such probing questions as:

▪ What IS Facebook, anyway?

▪ Where does it go when you turn off the computer?

▪ Is there a print version?

▪ Is Facebook the one with the video of a cat riding on a dog?

▪ How the heck do you get a cat to do that, anyway?

Patiently attempting to answer these questions is Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who wears a suit and tie and does a solid job of impersonating a regular human, except for not blinking and at one point having a tentacle emerge briefly from his left ear.

Abroad, the big news is a historic summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. In what observers see as a major breakthrough, Kim agrees to sign a letter of agreement explicitly acknowledging, for the first time, that he has exactly the same hairstyle as Bert, of Bert and Ernie.

In sports, Patrick Reed wins the Masters Tournament, prompting jubilant Eagles fans to celebrate by destroying what little is left of Philadelphia.

We laugh so we don’t cry.

Gargoyles

December 26, 2018 Rand Simberg 1 Comment

…for the twenty-first century.

Transterrestrial Musings